Here we are, at the crossroad of intelligence and intuition, as I take advantage of the quadrennial opportunity to parade my political smarts — or stupids.
One thing I know: The person I voted for president will not win. That’s Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian Party candidate. I hope that choice establishes my neutrality between Republican President Donald J. Trump, and Democratic former vice president Joe Biden.
In 2016, I predicted with certainty that Hillary Clinton would win, in large part because she would carry Pennsylvania. The Keystone State was crucial then, just as it is this year. Then, I predicted she would win Pennsylvania because neither she nor husband Bill had ever lost an election in the state — primary and general.
In horse racing, that’s known as handicapping the record. If a horse has never lost a particular race, the odds favor the horse winning it again.
Plus the polls, of course, almost all of which showed Clinton in the lead. And the polls were right — in the popular vote, but that isn’t how we select presidents. The polls were wrong in naming who the 45th president would be.
In addition to history and the polls, I add reading the experts, plus personal intuition, a.k.a., gut.
Four years ago, to the amazement of almost everyone — including his campaign staff, which had prepared a concession speech, but not one claiming victory — the billionaire(?) real estate mogul/reality TV star won the election.
One thing I had underestimated was his national popularity flowing from his TV show, because I had never watched it. He was the plain-talking, insult-spouting, PC-throttling, brash Everyman, the unknown political quantity. His candidacy satisfied a deep sense of grievance among many ordinary Americans, especially those in flyover country.
He is no longer politically unknown. He is as well known, and as political, as Biden. He has a record.
America has the power to say to him, as he said to many on TV, “You’re fired!”
I think America will do that, fire him, and relegate him to the Loser Pile of One-Term Presidents.
Why do I think that?
While he maintains his rock-solid, dead-ender 33% of America, I believe he has suffered serious erosion in key groups — seniors, white suburban women, and independents.
The seniors fear coronavirus and Trump has been dismissive of it, claiming it is lessening even while it is exploding. A secondary concern is that Trump will harm Social Security.
Suburban women have been turned off by his language and manner, plus the dreadful separation of parents from children at the border.
Independents are tired of the drama, and the whining and pettiness of the chief executive.
While Trump may have picked up the “macho” vote among some African-American and Hispanic males, the rest of their cohort is solid blue, except for Cuban Americans, who remain revulsed by Leftist regimes.
Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,000 last time, and I think he will lose Pennsylvania this year by at least that much.
Elsewhere along the Blue Wall, I believe he will lose Wisconsin and Michigan. He might win Minnesota because of people angry and frightened by riots that wracked Minneapolis.
I have no idea about Very Important Florida.
Bottom line: Joe Biden will be the 46th president. He has none of Hillary’s off-putting personal and personality defects. He does not drive people away. While his supporters are nowhere as passionate as Trump’s, he gain a ton of votes from people who hate Trump with a passion.
Trump is so unpopular, several Republican Senate incumbents have strong challengers.
I reluctantly predict Republicans will lose control of the Senate, which will put Congress and the White House in Democratic hands, something I would not like to see.
In this polarized moment, I want neither side with a monopoly. I trust neither political party. Each will do everything it can to solidify its position, even at the cost of hurting the nation.
We will probably have to wait until Friday to see if I am right, or wrong.
I know I will hear from some of you before then.
61 thoughts on “Why Joe Biden will win”
Hi Stu. I hope Biden wins in a blowout. If it comes down to the Supremes, I do not trust them. Kavanaugh already sounds like Trump in his Wisconsin opinion. And I don’t trust Barrett, either.
I hope Biden wins in a landslide, too, to repudiate Trump. But I don’t see it.
I can’t believe you wasted your vote. This is not a time for neutrality, Switzerland.
Maybe I “wasted” my vote when I cast it for Hillary. Voting conscience is never a wasted vote. And I have voted third party and write-in many times in the past.
If you “like” Democratic or Republican dog food, keeping eating it. I will dine elsewhere.
You’re starting to sound like Hamilton: “I’m not gonna waste my shot!”
I seem to agree with you virtually all the time Stu. But then I did when you wrote for what has become The Victim’s Daily. I agree with Suzette that this election was not a time to act Swiss. I think Biden and the Dems are terrible, but I couldn’t imagine what would happen to this country with another 4 years of this odious regime. I’d vote for a turnip over Trump. On the other hand, I think a Dem Senate would be very unfortunate. The Congress will have free reign to approve the worst impulses of the “progressives.”
I was not neutral. I cast a vote against Trump and Biden.
A few things about your correction. You are right. Precision of language is something that I really value and you called me on my imprecision. You also called me for my illogical stance, which I also concede. I am so disgusted by the present administration, that sometimes that disgust steps in front of my reason. I failed to remember that voting is a moral and civic act, not an algebraic one. Maybe your approach is the right way. American democracy presented a “lesser of two evils” dilemma to voters this year but you are correct. We won’t have better choices until we demand better by not settling for the unacceptable choices we have now. Perhaps like Peggy Noonan, I should have written in Edmund Burke as my vote for president. BTW, I posted her article in its entirety on my FB page if you are still inclined to read it. What she says about both right and left (Repubs and Dems) is so ‘on target.’
in one sentence. Don’t like our present politics ( who does ) ? Get involved ! Only we can stir the pot at the grass roots level that, in time, will reach the decision makers.
( I think that that’s one sentence )
pray not, Business can not handle the taxes in Biden Plan , 39% capital gains, 38% business taxes. 90 % of business is small business. Biggest fear Biden wins and can’t serve out the term . A Harris president scares me .
I am not in FAVOR of higher taxes, but returning them to prior levels will not cause a recession.
that is not there plan , did you read it
So true. If the dims take all three – White House, Senate, Congress, here comes socialism !
HAPPY MONDAY !!!
Here we go, Stu,
I have been promoted to an “deplorable, ugly chump” for TRUMP ! You, my friend, for what ever reason, have always been a Trump hater.
I would dismiss discussing the records of Trump vs joey, but that is what the race SHOULD be about, rather than personalities. The three above are anti Trump. Sounds like personality, rather than the positive work than OUR President has done, rather than the little bit of good that came out of the eight years of obama/biden. Again, no capitals. No respect, no capitals ! This administration has done more in four years than probably any other President. For one, the previous administrations kept the wars going, killing our family members. President Trump is bringing our Troops back home AND initiating Peace Agreements in the Middle East ! obama was given a Nobel Peace prize – for just showing up . We’ll see if THREE nominations for the Peace Prize, turn into awards. Should I bother to enlighten the populace, as to joey’s record of accomplishments ? Nah, another time. No need to lower your blog to that level.
Politically speaking. We republicans would like the “trifecta”. Win it all. Take back Congress. Add to the Senate. Definitely, keep the White House. Should it go thee opposite way, then socialism, here we come ! Out here, in Chester County, previous voting records showed almost an even split between the two parties, with about twenty thousand independents. The “I” vote is always sought. The parties always have people jumping ship. My educated guess is, “I don’t know”. I would like a landslide victory. I feel that if that should happen, then the tumultuous times will fade away. Anything less, and we will probably still have dissent – to say the least. A closing thought. All through this campaign, I keep hearing the negative side of Trump. It’s there for sure and as pointed out many times, many ways, we accept him – warts and all. The sad aspect is this. The last guy that walked on water, they crucified !
stay well old timer,
I do not “hate” Trump, or Biden, and on the few occasions where Trump has done something right, I have applauded him — such as dragging a few Middle East countries to the peace table.
And I was immediately attacked by the TDS crowd who said it wasn’t a big deal.
Even though, I noted, it was on Page One of the NYT, WaPo and WSJ.
You are attacked by only one side. I get it from both. But it is my own doing.
And F—- them.
actually, my friend. I am not loved by the “locals” out here, either. There idea of supporting a candidate is far different than mime. Maybe, it’s because I was raised on Philly politics ( republican ) then further weaned on South Jersey politics – which are Philly politics ten fold !
As for you. I’m pretty sure that you told me that you have hated Donald Trump since way back in the ’70s. You do, I gladly admit, that you try to be fair with our President. That’s because you are an upstanding person and a “real” professional journalist.
I never said I hated Trump. I covered him starting in the ‘80s and found him fun, colorful and a stone liar. He is still a liar, a buffoon, a needy narcissist and why a veteran would support him when he thinks YOU are a loser and a sucker baffles me.
And don’t say he didn’t say it. He did. Just as he demeaned John McCain.
Sadly you only eat at the Democratic table. DJT never said the stuff you find so horrendous. Your greatest sin, however, is that you never learned how to spell “Hunter Biden.” So, learn to speak Chinese and better ready to accept the illegal families that will be moving into your building. Keep in mind I gave you a heads up months ago.
Another delusional Trumpster. I eat at the Democratic table by voting Libertarian. Stick to handicapping Navy football. 😀
With all do respect. You and I have talked in private and on the wire. We both made it very clear. You hate Trump for all of those reasons and he must have twisted your shorts pretty tight, way back when, ’cause you ain’t about to get over it. I, on the other hand, I saw him at his finest and worstist (?) in A.C. and elsewhere.
As for me being a Vet. Don’t go after Trump with something so cheap and offensive, my pallie ! ( we’re still palles ). That B.S. started when President Trump was in France for the D-Day ceremonies. He got rained out at the one cemetery. Secret Service would not let them fly in inclement weather in a foreign country . ( go figure ) The President wanted to drive to a cemetery much closer. Again, the S.S. shot him down. ( is that a bad phrase ? ) The cemetery and route was unsecured. Our fake news twisted those events to fit them best ! We know that Donald Trump did not serve. I told him how I felt about that, and we had a conversation. It was very common, back then, If you were in college, married, or a few other excuses, you got deferred. If you came from money, you could buy your exemption. If you were just a street kid, you were going to Vietnam. If you were black, see ya in Hanoi ! That’s the way it was !
I am a proud deplorable Chump for Trump !
I know me better than you do and I can assure you I do NOT hate Trump, I never said that, but I realize the futility of trying to shake a Trumpster free from delusions.
Finally something I agree with. As they say from your nouth to g-d’s ear Biden all the way. Sorry you threw your vote away, That was not smart
Voting one’s conscience is never wasted. Voting for someone you don’t believe is far worse.
brains above the heart !
It’s OK Stu – I predicted Larry Bird wouldn’t make it n the NBA. May the best Country win.
I can’t believe that Democrats preach so much about change and hatred of old white men and then pick one as their candidate. Once again they have picked a flawed candidate who never held a job and has gotten rich off taxpayer money. Trump is narcissistic, nasty and uncouth but he has upset the swamp and changed the stays quo. If you take the time to read about all the candidates you will find they are all corrupt. The media wants you to believe Biden is a saint. My vote goes for the President.
Albert….you called that one out correctly: Biden being referred to as a saint by the media. Of course, around these here parts, Biden was always known as the local Village Idiot for the last 40 years. I mean, the man isn’t completely stupid of course, but he has been known as Mr. Gaffe since he first became a senator. In addition, in the early Obama presidency years, the administration had to read him the basic “shut-up” riot act. If he does win, I suspect and fear Harris will be doing most of the talking around the White House.
It is ironic that they came up with their most hated demographic — elderly white men. He was chosen by a vote, which gives me hope the base isn’t as loony as I fear.
I saw a better candidate on the dimocratic stage. None of them were millionaires, Indians (?), gay, Mexican-American, black, from the far north or N. Y. state. ( narrowed that right down )
Stu – as they say, time will tell. And this time, it may be a long time (relatively speaking) to know how well your predicition(s), or should I say predilections, come to pass. Either way, I won’t hold it against you. LoL.
But wait – there’s more!
If Trump does lose, I predict every left-leaning newspaper will have as their front page headline: “YOU’RE FIRED!!”
I predict you are right about Page One… if tabloids, anyway.
Just finished reading TRUMAN by David McCullough. Truman, running against Tom Dewey, was given NO chance of winning — NONE, NADA, ZIP, NICHIVO. But the crowds of Americans that showed up on his visits by train around the country were huge, like Trump’s. So… Trump will win, and we will be spared the horror of a Kamala Harris presidency that would occur when Joe Biden would have kicked the bucket, been Vince Fostered, or resigned because he lost his mind. And it won’t even be close.
Vince, can I quote you ?
I’m favoring “landslide Victory” with all of the Republicans riding his coat tails in triumph !
I’m an eldery white man, real eldery, and just think it’s a shame that we have these two dudes as presidential candidates. Who in there right mind would want to be President in a country where the populace are mentally challenge (PC). The candidates are subject to ridicule and the families are brought into the fray. I voted for Biden who I have no respect for, simply because I think Trump is batshit crazy.
For the reasons that you give, “good people” are hard to find. All of the positions available should have our best, instead of some dead dog’s relative.
As for you voting for biden. Jim, I’m a little worried about you……
BTW I asked you before. Are you a choker ?
The vote counts irrespective of motive.
 The polls were wrong last time,  the huge huge Trump stump speech crowds must mean Something, and  the economy was doing very well, including record low unemployment for minorities, before the virus (which Trump Has handled well) hit. Street Smarts is you, Stu, and I greatly respect you for it, but this time, if the Dems win, the Biden Family, including Won’t-Say-It-Ain’t-So,Joe, will be laughing all the way to the bank.
57000 attend Trump rally in Butler (rock stars don’t draw like this) 6700 vehicle caravan from Newtown to Doylestown! All across this great country on land and sea and air his supporters are rallying.
My point is something is happening again…a big red wave on election day when more Republicans haven’t voted than Democrats.
I’ll stick with my prediction a month or so ago….the Black and Brown electorate and, I will add, the Young will propel a Trump victory. How big, no idea? Newt Gingrich predicts 315 or so electoral votes. Otherwise, if you are right, Stu The Swamp will be the true victors and we will all be the losers.
Yo, Tom, regardless who wins, the whole country loses, just in different ways.
Tell that to those who came from and lived in oppressed countries like Cuba and Venezuela. Sometimes we forget how great we have it here in a Free Country.
Right again. People talk as if their life doesn’t hang in the balance. Most of us are here because our families didn’t like where they were living. Some places were very deadly.
“Use your head for something other than a hat rack “, is an old saying from our Teaching Priests, as some of you may remember.
I’m sorry Stu you wasted your vote! I agree with Albert Vagnozzi. The Dems pass Biden off as a decent man, which
he isn’t. He’s corrupt and sold out our country for his gain. Why isn’t Hunter campaigning for his Dad??? The last
debate, Biden looked like a very OLD man and why is he always squinting? Kamala will be President if he wins,
very scary thought! Biden has been in office years and has none nothing but become very rich. President Trump exposed all the corruption in Wash DC for years and that’s why they hate him. The whole Biden family is corrupt.
I’m Pro Life, Pro American and believe in our great country. The Dems are gloom and doom…they give no hope and
hate America. Why would any sane person vote for them. Trump has done more in 4 years than they have done for
more than 50…that’s why they hate him. We will be in sad shape if Sleepy Joe should win! The squad will run the show,
Well said !
joey was/is the class clown. He was a good soldier in the party. Timing got him were he is today. Playing the game made him very wealthy. That’s the “thing” down there in the SWAMP ! We take care of our own, means we got ours, and we got yours, too !
As I’ve told others, voting your conscience is never a waste. It is a statement that says FU to both major parties.
Can we sum up the basis of your prediction by pointing out that Vice President Biden is nowhere near as unpopular as Secretary Clinton was in 2016? “Corrupt Hillary” tended to stick, while “Sleepy Joe,” tends to bounce? (“Well, yes, but…”)
People less enamored of Mr. Trump, Biden-Harris (and the Libertarians) might consider voting for a Republican Congress, and then, answering “none of the above,” on the presidential line?
I won’t decide until I get in the polling booth. Resisting a landslide seems like a god idea.
If it is true, that the “never Trump” Republicans are an encouraging sign (absence of complete acquiescence and conformity) then why not find encouragement in the Black and Latino men dissenting from the anti-Trump, pro-Biden bandwagon among the loyal Democrats?
We are better off to the degree that more people think for themselves.
Thinking is a great idea. You, as an educator and writer understands that thinking with the aide of proper reading material really helps !
Too bad that so many are stuck on the fake news or on the far right. There is almost common ground out there. It’s not hidden from view. ( not really ) It just requires a little effort on our part to actually do “research”. Something that the masses don’t have an interest in pursuing.
So, a philosophical question. Are we better off with someone who does not read and goes on gut instinct, or as you noted, someone who does poor research ?
Dear Clark & readers,
I think, generally, that we’d all be better off if advertising/propaganda techniques did not dominate politics and political discourse. That would, of course, require greater attention to the reliability of sources and opinion makers. “Fake news” and the propagation of extremist opinion are rooted in the same sorry, manipulative aims, methods and conditions. This appears to suit both “elite economic domination” (domestically and internationally) and also the current, undeveloped, “revolt” of populist opposition.
The genuine populist opposition will eventually have to convert substantial elements of the establishment to recognition of their complaints–including some of those “Never Trump” Republicans and and some of the Democrats. This won’t happen overnight; and these folks won’t be manipulated –knowing only too well how its done.
You can summarize any way you care to.
You may be the last “undecided” in America.
Yes, but the question was whether you’d accept the summary. No obligation, of course.
My lack of decision, before morning at the polling station, arises from genuine discontent with the candidates, but it has also been aimed at greater focus on the issues.
How far can these folks actually be brought round by emphasis on issues instead of party, persons and personalities? For example, one might reasonably want to know whether and how far Mr. Biden is still enchanted with globalization and imagined systems of world governance. What about unemployment and job insecurity among (the vast majority) of non-union working people? Is it plausible that union jobs will make a comeback? Does free trade sometimes need to take a back seat to domestic manufacturing and employment, etc., etc.?
There does seem to be some response, however muted.
Sorry if I did not fully answer. I have so much answering to do, here and Facebook, I take short cuts and don’t answer everything.
WTF is a choker?
Don’t worry about me, if your voting for orange head, or better yet the draft dodger, I worry about you.
Can I call you Jimmy ? “Burke” is (obviously ) an Irish name. I forget the county, etc.. A long time ago, ( Irish potato famine ) The lads left the island and headed for America. Some missed the mark – by quite a bit ! They landed in Newfoundland. About the only thing you can do there is fish ( and tourism ). Back in the day, the men would hot the road and become lumberjacks in Canada, or work there way south ( states ) and become construction workers. Fast forward to NYC. Lots of :Chokers” up there in the building trades. Come to Philly.. Port Richmond . Just about every Newfoundlander was related to everyone else. Just like towns all through Europe and probably the rest of the world. Anyhow, the people brought their ways with them, as do everyone else. They called themselves “chokers” because of fishing. They either choked the fish or there is actually choker herring.
So, by Jesus ( as they would say ), you’re either from the ole sod or you’re descended from” Goofie Newfies ” ! Either one is something to be proud of. Ain’t that right, Jimmy boy?”. “Lord, suffering sweet Jesus, it is”!
( good people, they are. Just talk a little funny ! )
Try to remember: it would NOT be a vote for Biden — it would be a vote for Kamala Harris. Biden is the wooden-headed ventriloquist’s dummy, sitting in the lap of the DNC, and Kamala Harris would be doing all the talking. The nation is about to dodge a leftist bullet when Trump wins.
Bernie the Bolshevik, Kamala the Commie and The Squad…Yikes!!
Trump, the Putin Puppet.
Oh, how I enjoy your back and forth comments, columnists, but am appalled by your use of language — do instead of due, there instead of possessive their. Oh, well. It is just between us.
Oh, and Stu, I did write in my choice for President!
I will be counting electoral votes as I personally tally each state.
Back to my column DUE today.
MY use of language? I certainly know the difference between “their” and “there” and “your” and “you’re”
Not all your “commentators’ do!
True, but that is not what you said.
Comments are closed.