Nuclear war: Making it thinkable

Not many things scare the crap out of me, including the threat of nuclear war.

I was in public school in the ‘50s, when some schools had “duck and cover” exercises to protect students in a nuclear attack. It involved dropping to the floor and hiding under your desk, or sometimes leaving the classroom and curling up in the hall.

 I lived in New York City, America’s largest and richest city, which was thought of as the Soviet Union’s #1 target for annihilation.

A lot of latter-day critics ridiculed the exercises as futile, unable to protect students from a flattening nuclear blast. Well, they were not intended to protect against the blast or radiation. They were designed to protect students from falling walls, and crucifying daggers of shattered window glass. 

Public and private bomb shelters were built, and, of course, the government spent untold millions to construct shelters for government officials and military command and control.

All to no avail, according to “Nuclear War, A Scenario,” by Annie Jacobsen, a recognized authority on the subject, who scared the crap out of me.

Why?

I believed that an attack launched by mistake could be recalled, that ground controllers could do that.

They can’t, says Jacobsen.

Why?

Because such controls could be hacked by the enemy, and that’s why they don’t exist.

Remember the 1964 movie, “Fail Safe?”

A flight of U.S. bombers is launched, erroneously, to bomb Moscow. Unable to reach the bombers to call off the attack, the U.S. military shares information with the Russians to allow them to shoot down U.S. bombers. 

But one gets through, to bomb Moscow. 

To avoid a mass retaliation, to prove his good faith, the American president commands U.S. bombers to drop a nuke on New York.

What’s different today? A lot.

Starting with supersonic missiles, replacing sub sonic B-52 and B-2 bombers. The time from launch to impact is measured in minutes, not hours, and Jacobsen creates a terrifying narrative, not minute by minute, but second by second.

She conducted interviews with dozens of military experts, politicians, aerospace engineers, physicians, and others. 

The first Russian target, in a sneak attack, or a bolt out of the blue, would be the Pentagon, for obvious reasons.

A 1-megaton thermonuclear weapon would generate 180-million-degree heat behind a flash so bright, it can’t be imagined, Jacobsen writes. The heat creates a fireball expanding at millions of miles per hour, and the 27,000 humans in the Pentagon would perish instantly.

And they would be the lucky ones.

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Office buildings and other structures become dust. More than 1 million people are dead or dying within two minutes of detonation, Jacobsen writes. Gas lines explode, one after another, acting like flamethrowers, spewing deadly streams of fire. Tanks containing flammable materials burst open. Open gaps in floors and roofs behave like chimneys. Carbon dioxide from the firestorms settle into subway tunnels, asphyxiating riders in their seats. Asphalt streets turn to liquid, trapping hundreds in molten quicksand. Tens of thousands of people have ruptured lungs. Crows, sparrows, and pigeons flying overhead catch fire and drop from the sky. There is no electricity, no phone service, no 911.

No cars, no TV, no internet, no emergency services. Everyone is on his own.

In 1954, there were 1,703 nuclear weapons in the U.S. stockpile. It reached a high of 31,255 nuclear bombs. Thanks to treaties, it is down to 5,000+ today.

That’s us. Russia, China, England, France, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea have their own.

If I read Jacobsen right, she is terrified about the prospect of nuclear war, based on her belief that if it starts, there is no stopping it and it will basically end the world as we know it.

So maybe that is why she questions complains that we have OPLAN 8010-12, which is an action plan against Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

I ask, would we be safer without a retaliatory plan that our enemies know we have?

She writes we have 1,700 nukes ready to launch. Russia has 1,674.

Doesn’t that act as a deterrent on both sides? (Since publication of the book, Putin has rattled his saber, threatening to use battlefield nukes. The U.S. intel community is divided on whether he is serious.)

I believe it does act as a deterrent. It has so far.

Jacobsen fears not.

On Page 32, “Nuclear war begins with a blip on a radar screen.”

For unexplained reasons, North Korea has fired the Hwasong-17 ICBM at what we learn is the continental United States, a launch that is instantly detected, and within three seconds this message: BALLISTIC MISSILE LAUNCH, ALERT! is received by various U.S. intelligence agencies, which are shocked into action. Depending on the target, the ICBM will strike its target in less than 20 minutes.

The missile is tracked by 9,000 high-powered microprocessor-capable satellites, which speed information into the tip of the spear of the political/military complex.

They act, you may be surprised, with great calm.

Remember, the missile can’t be called back, it can’t be hacked. There is no Iron Dome protecting U.S. cities as it protects some Israeli cities.

Jacobsen makes no issue of this.

Maybe we should.

What the Left once ridiculed Star Wars as President Ronald Reagan’s ill-conceived plan, it is a reality — a bullet shooting a bullet out of the sky.

With an ICBM streaking toward the U.S., what the good guys are thinking is this: Why only one missile? 

North Korea knows it will be destroyed by an overwhelming U.S. response.

The commander of the U.S. Strategic Command is the man (or woman) who advises the President on the use of nukes. No other person stands between them.

Second by second, minute by minute, Jacobsen creates a realistic scenario.

It is enough for you to know that, yes, the United States is attacked by nuclear missiles.

You will have to read the book to see what happens next.