Iran’s futile attack challenges Israel to do less

President Joe Biden told Iran, “Don’t.”

Iran not only did attack Israel — but for the first time it attacked Israel directly from its own soil. It was “unprecedented,” many analysts said.

We will return to this in a moment.

One headline should be written about the unprecedented success of Israeli, American, and other allies’ air defense systems, in shooting down 99% of the 300+ missiles and drones fired at the Jewish state by the Islamic state.

Another headline might go like this: Iran attacks Israel, but oh so modestly.

There is general agreement Iran telegraphed that its attack was coming, and it used arms that it probably knew  would not reach their targets in Israel.

So while it seemed like a massive attack, and payback for Israel’s alleged April 1 destruction of an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, it actually was designed to do little damage.

The Iranian thinking seems to be, “We have to retaliate against Israel for the April 1 attack, but we don’t want to start World War III.”

It is not easy for me to give Iran any credit for moderation, but the facts seem clear.

Iran practically shouted its intentions, it attacked (predictably) on the Sabbath, it used bad tactics — such as slow-moving drones — and announced the end of the attack even before all the drones had been fired.

It sent two messages: We are not afraid of attacking Israel from our own soil, and we don’t pay attention when the U.S. says “don’t.” In fact, we tell the U.S. to butt out of the Middle East.

I am pretty sure Biden is telling Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, “Don’t respond massively.”

Biden reportedly has told Israel it has “won” this round, let it go.

I doubt Israel will/can let it go, but it can satisfy itself with a pinprick attack, to avoid further escalation.

But Biden has to make something clear.

On the one hand, he says Israel has an “ironclad” guarantee of American support, but America will not join it in an attack against Iran. On CNN Sunday morning, Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. John Fetterman disagreed with his president, saying U.S. support should be unconditional and Biden should not “capitulate” to his party’s pro-Hamas left fringe.

I don’t want the U.S. to get into a shooting war with Iran, which we would easily win, but I also don’t want Iran thinking that when the U.S. says, “Don’t,” there will be no consequences if it does.

Deterrence works only when the other side believes you are not bull-shitting.

And some in Israel believes it must strike back hard to establish its own deterrence card. But I disagree. Its superb air-defense system is actually deterrence. It has demonstrated that it is not vulnerable to an air attack.

If it ordered the attack on the consulate, which it has not admitted, Israel crossed a line.

By unleashing a furious attack on Israeli soil, Iran crossed a line.

Right now, world opinion is once again sympathetic to Israel.

A major attack on Iran, killing civilians, would swing it back again.

Israel’s response should be small and smart.