President Joe Biden told Iran, “Don’t.”
Iran not only did attack Israel — but for the first time it attacked Israel directly from its own soil. It was “unprecedented,” many analysts said.
We will return to this in a moment.
One headline should be written about the unprecedented success of Israeli, American, and other allies’ air defense systems, in shooting down 99% of the 300+ missiles and drones fired at the Jewish state by the Islamic state.
Another headline might go like this: Iran attacks Israel, but oh so modestly.
There is general agreement Iran telegraphed that its attack was coming, and it used arms that it probably knew would not reach their targets in Israel.
So while it seemed like a massive attack, and payback for Israel’s alleged April 1 destruction of an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, it actually was designed to do little damage.
The Iranian thinking seems to be, “We have to retaliate against Israel for the April 1 attack, but we don’t want to start World War III.”
It is not easy for me to give Iran any credit for moderation, but the facts seem clear.
Iran practically shouted its intentions, it attacked (predictably) on the Sabbath, it used bad tactics — such as slow-moving drones — and announced the end of the attack even before all the drones had been fired.
It sent two messages: We are not afraid of attacking Israel from our own soil, and we don’t pay attention when the U.S. says “don’t.” In fact, we tell the U.S. to butt out of the Middle East.
I am pretty sure Biden is telling Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, “Don’t respond massively.”
Biden reportedly has told Israel it has “won” this round, let it go.
I doubt Israel will/can let it go, but it can satisfy itself with a pinprick attack, to avoid further escalation.
But Biden has to make something clear.
On the one hand, he says Israel has an “ironclad” guarantee of American support, but America will not join it in an attack against Iran. On CNN Sunday morning, Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. John Fetterman disagreed with his president, saying U.S. support should be unconditional and Biden should not “capitulate” to his party’s pro-Hamas left fringe.
I don’t want the U.S. to get into a shooting war with Iran, which we would easily win, but I also don’t want Iran thinking that when the U.S. says, “Don’t,” there will be no consequences if it does.
Deterrence works only when the other side believes you are not bull-shitting.
And some in Israel believes it must strike back hard to establish its own deterrence card. But I disagree. Its superb air-defense system is actually deterrence. It has demonstrated that it is not vulnerable to an air attack.
If it ordered the attack on the consulate, which it has not admitted, Israel crossed a line.
By unleashing a furious attack on Israeli soil, Iran crossed a line.
Right now, world opinion is once again sympathetic to Israel.
A major attack on Iran, killing civilians, would swing it back again.
Israel’s response should be small and smart.
Well said, do hope Netanyahu and Iran heed your advice about “letting well enough alone”!
I understand Iran did what it probably needed to do. Unbelievably they went about the “right” way (if there can be such a thing). I agree with Biden. Israel should take the win and they can go back to their corners exchanging glares.
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Iran the #1 sponsor of terrorism is never going to stop.You don’t have to hit them militarily but hit them in their wallet. The U.S and our allies should put severe sanctions on their economy like we had under Trump and they won’t be able to afford to terrorize anyone. This action cannot go unpunished.
Biden did not lift any of those sanctions on Iran, and imposed some more of his own on hundreds more entities–including on Chinese companies helping Iran.
But, as we all know, Trump loves Chinese companies like Tik Tok, and immediately believes whatever the Chinese tell him. (“Do you trust that we’re going to know everything we need to know from China [about Covid] ?” Trump: “I do. I do. I have a great relationship with President Xi….The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency.”)
Biden also issued sanctions to crack down on the transfer of Iranian weaponry to Russia. Trump wants to strengthen Iran by giving Putin Ukraine–a whole new trading partner for Iran. This would change Ukraine from being the “breadbasket of Europe” to the breadbasket for terrorism. When you strengthen Russia, you strengthen Iran, its ally.
It’s hilarious how every time you try to drag your pro-Trump delusions into the discussion, you step on a rake.
Ask the American people if they feel safer under Biden. Ask our allies. Ask yourself. If your honest you will say you were safer under Trump. But you and anyone else who would vote for Biden are blinded by your hate to see the truth.
Another fairytale
All it will take for peace to settle over the Middle East is an acceptance of Israel’s presence and right to exist by the crazies who, over and over again launch war (and get their asses kicked over and over again) against this tiny nation. The irrational hatred of Israel is the source of all the misery in that part of the world. Israel has a right to defend itself, and should continue to do so no matter all the hue and cry from those sitting comfortably in their cozy homes.
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Interesting statement by Benny Gantz: “we will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran, in the way and at the time that suits us.”
Two interesting things about that. First, “we will build a regional coalition…” Who, whaat? But he’s serious. Jordan assisted in shooting down Iranian drones. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/jordans-air-defence-ready-shoot-down-any-iranian-aircraft-that-violate-its-2024-04-13/ The Saudi’s are/were in a proxy war with Iran in Yemen (there’s a ceasefire of sorts). And remember Iraq fought a war with Iran (though now they are supposedly on good terms) The Arabs need/want a counterweight to Iranian influence (and of course Iranians are not Arabs).
Absent the Palestinian issue, geopolitics would make Israel and many Arab countries natural allies.– That’s why Israel and Saudi Arabia were close to signing a deal. So, “we will build a regional coalition” sounds to me like diplomacy and planning with “the enemies of my enemy” and not an immediate plan to retaliate without other countries in the region on board for something.
Second, “in the way and at the time that suits us” is certainly not straight out saying “we’ll take the win and leave things be.” But it clearly leaves a lot of wiggle room, that, say, “retaliation will be swift and sure” would not. My guess is that any retaliation will not be immediate or direct. Instead, I think it will be opportunistic. Something more like the assassination of the generals in Syria, and quite probably many months away from now, or even held back until there is some change in the Gaza situation.
As Stu says, Iran’s attack was performative rather than substantive. Given the lack of damage, I think that politically, the Israeli government can afford to bide its time. Maybe there will be an equally performative pin prick soon, but I suspect a delay to make Israel look restrained would be politically useful on the world stage–without sacrificing any of its objectives. And as Gantz says, it is an opportunity to talk or “consult” with those in the region who are also against Iran. Israel already has a two front war with Hamas and Hezbollah. I can’t see it being interested in opening another directly with Iran.
My guess is that the retaliation will be less a pin-prick than a paper cut (sprinkled with lemon juice)–that is, small but painful. However, I do not think it will come quickly.
The pin prick might be an untraceable cyber attack.
Remember theGaza war and the war in Ukraine are direct results of the Biden administration’s weakness and incompetence. If Biden and the democrats have caused this much chaos in the country and the world in less than one term imagine what will happen if he’s re-elected.
Your comments are uninformed and shallow. Furthermore, they are basically the same tired, fact-free empty words you posted on Stu’s last column, and all previous. Comments that have little to nothing to do with the topic, just an opportunity for you to blame Biden and Democrats for everything that is wrong in the world. There have been several wars in the middle east, starting with Israel’s formation in 1948. Have you blamed OUR President at that time for those wars? There have also been two World Wars originating in Europe. Did you blame the United States President? How about when Japan attacked our Country at Pearl Harbor? Was that due to FDR’s weakness and incompetence? Did you blame President George Bush when terrorists killed 3,000 Americans ON OUR OWN SOIL?How about when Covid hit out country, people were afraid to leave their homes, our economy was on the brink of collapse and Hundreds of Thousands of our citizens DIED. Was that President Trumps’ fault?
My comments are on point. Do you feel safer now. Do you feel the country is better off with Biden in office. We now have people in our country chanting death to America out in public. This is America today under Biden and the democrats. Stop your hating and wake up.
Banging your head against a wall makes more sense than engaging with Daniel.
Advice: Ignore him, as I do.
Naomi, I am sure you realize Daniel is totally lacking anything resembling a normal thought process. Even though I sometimes respond to Danny Stu’s advice is good.
Everyone knows Biden is a disaster except the usual suspects.
I agree with Senator John Fetterman. I agree with Daniel’s first statement.