Jim Kenney could re-elect Donald J. Trump.
That seems incredibly far-fetched, but some Democrats think it is possible, even while violently hating the idea.
Here’s how the theory goes:
Pennsylvania is a purple state, largely conservative except for Greater Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and State College. To win, a statewide candidate must rack up a huge lead in vote-rich Philly and its suburbs.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton failed to carry Pennsylvania and that cost her the election. There are other scenarios to be sure, but follow this one.
In the last presidential election, Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million cast, a razor thin margin of 0.72%, the smallest in a presidential election in 176 years, since William Henry Harrison defeated Martin Van Buren by just 0.12% in 1840. It was the first time a Clinton had lost a Pennsylvania election.
Democrats have a 7-1 voter registration edge in Philadelphia. Turnout in 2016 was 64% of registered voters, and when Mayor Kenney said the turnout was great, he was called a liar by Philadelphia magazine, usually securely attached to his butt.
That turnout was 4 points lower than the 68 percent who showed up in 2008, and 2 points lower than the 66 percent who came out in 2012.
The 2008 race was historic — the election of our first Black president, Barack Obama. There were lines at the polls and enthusiasm that Clinton simply could not duplicate in 2016.
Her 2016 Philadelphia vote total was 584,025 —4,000 less than Obama in 2012. Trump got 108,748. Her poor showing was despite Democrats’ frenzied attempts to portray Trump as the devil.
The loss could be even greater this time.
Why? Philadelphians hate Jim Kenney, especially South Philadelphians, who may turn their wrath against all Democrats.
Why do they hate Jim Kenney?
Oh, let’s see: He’s trying to remove a statue of Christopher Columbus from South Philly’s Marconi Park; he cowardly removed the Frank Rizzo statue in the dead of the night; he tried to sneak a so-called “safe injection site” into South Philly; garbage is piling up faster than the murder rate; the highly unpopular soda tax; homeless trespassers thumb their noses at his threats to remove them from the Parkway.
To be fair, not everyone hates Jim Kenney for these actions and inactions. Most of these issues flow from his progressive ideals and progressives have made gains in South Philly that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
Former WHYY reporter Elizabeth Fiedler won a state rep seat from a machine candidate a few years ago, and earlier this year incumbent state Sen. Larry Farnese, himself a progressive, was thumped by more progressive insurgent Nikil Saval.
With that said, many traditional Democrats are still around, and there are enough of them to upset the apple cart.
One Democratic leader, a Biden backer, told me he heaved a sigh of relief when Kenney endorsed Elizabeth Warren.
“I didn’t want Kenney to endorse Biden; everyone hates him,” the politico said, with possible exaggeration. “Democrats want to distance themselves from him.”
A dedicated Democratic friend of mine has volunteered to make calls to registered Democrats in South Philly. While she hasn’t spoken to many, she has been shocked to find worrisome numbers who tell her they will vote for Trump, or at least stay home.
She surmises they are sending a message to Kenney.
I checked with some of my former South Philly neighbors, who confirm Kenney’s stock is low, even among those who voted for him — twice.
There is no doubt Philly will vote for Biden in large numbers. But if voters are turned off the Democratic Party because of Kenney, and the numbers drop below what Clinton got, Trump could again win the state — and re-election.
It may be far-fetched, but it is possible.
24 thoughts on “How Kenney might re-elect Trump”
HAPPY SATURDAY !!!
All that you said is true. I would point out that the voting public has a short memory ( and attention ) span, until the problems hit close to home. Every dimocratic mayor and governor is in trouble for all of the liberalness and progressiveness that has been taking place these last few months. Especially, if there’s a week dimacrat D.A.. The virus is bad enough by itself, but coupled with the violence and complete disrespect for the law, a nail in the dimocrat coffin for sure. The obvious damage is easily seen, but wait till we republicans remind the voters that all taxes are going through the roof next year ! Everywhere !
I once referred to the voters in Philadelphia as those zombies from “NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD.” Every election cycle Philadelphia voters stumble to the polls to re-elect the very pols who have driven the city to its knees on the past 70-plus. I expect nothing less in the coming election. And Pennsylvania is a perfect example (at the state level) why we have an Electoral College on the national level. Consider: if Pennsylvania were a country, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh would probably elect a Democrat president ad infinitum: huge clumps of brain-dead zombie Democrat voters running the nation simply because two big cities are in thrall to the Left. Very scary. I suspect if Biden is elected, the Dems will make a concerted effort to start the ball rolling for a new Constitutional Amendment to eliminate the Electoral College and go forward with the popular vote-only proviso to elect a president.
You touched on the truth. The scarier part is; what if the vote count can not be completed by January 17, 2021 ? By constitution and the PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION ACT of 1947, the dimocrats think that her majesty Pelosi, will be the reigning monarch for the next 6 months ! Couple that horrible thought with a dimocratic congress, and they will pass every socialist law that they can in that amount of time . Of course, all of this will go to court, but in the mean time……………..
You guys are reminding me of the Beatles song, “Revolution”:
“You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it’s evolution”
“You say you’ll change the constitution
Well, you know
We all want to change your head
You tell me it’s the institution
Well, you know
You better free you mind instead”
When you said “Traditional Democrats” I thought, ‘That’s who I was and why I switched to Republican’ way back. Yeah, there was Reagan in the primary!
Last year here, I lamented about my democrat friends (not all) who hate Trump and literally laughed and outnumbered me at one particular breakfast. That was difficult for me and I took it to heart, but surprisingly they hadn’t even remembered! It was just in the moment for them, having some fun. I was in the barrel and didn’t know it!
When we were young, working and partying together, with our families or not, politics never came up. I assumed they were traditional. They were and still are, but don’t vote that way. Why? I suppose because they limit themself to local issues, validating Tip O’Neill’s “All politics is local.” I won’t ask when we meet again, but I’d be surprised if some don’t vote Donald, giving validity to your theory.
None of this has broken our 50 plus years of friendship. That’s what is most important!
Tom, what you said about friendship being the most important is so true. In my many years my friends and I have disagreed on some things. Some were political, some were not. No matter what the disagreement was we always stuck by each other.
Kenney/Krasner are why I’m voting straight R in Philly for the first time in 43 years of voting. True, Kenney’s not running but I want to vote all of his party OUT. And from talking to fellow Philly friends I see the sentiment is the same.
Annette, unless there is no person on the Democratic ticket who you think is doing, or will do a good job why would you not vote for them just because you do not like Kenney or Krasner? I vote for who I feel will do the best job. I do not care which party that individual is part of nor do I care who, or what, endorses them.
I can honestly say in my more than 50 years of voting I have never voted a straight ticket.
HAPPY SUNDAY !!!
At the risk of either confusing or upsetting, I always understood that a “split ticket was when you actually voted for more than one party. On this year’s ballot, for President, you have four parties represented. For example, if you are registered as an Independent, you vote wherever and for whom you like. Jo Jurgensen is Libertarian and Vice President from the Green part is Angela Nicole Walker, is an example of a split ticket.
That’s called “DRAIN the SWAMP” ! It is almost impossible to find any politician that cares more about his constituents, than he/she does about the chosen few. Regardless of party. You are old enough to remember when we has “statesmen”, not politicians.
Tony, I do remember when we had “statesmen”, not politicians. Unfortunately, those times are long past.
So my option is to vote for the most odious individual ever to hold the office of president as some sort of protest against the most incompetent individual(s) to hold office in Philadelphia? As much as I loathe what Kenney has allowed to be done to this once beautiful city, I won’t toss my vote away and do that. My heart is heavy every time I look at the Parkway, once one of the jewels of the city. I am outraged at how my taxes have been frittered away. I am furious at how lawlessness has been enabled and excused; at how this administration can’t even provide the most basic of services — garbage pick up; at how there is no viable Republican Party to vote for in this town. But I will crawl through a mountain of coronavirus to vote against the Trump criminal enterprise. And I will be sad, because each side of this race is unacceptable and we are once again looking at voting for the lesser of two evils.
Ms. Mohr: Split your ticket. Problem solved.
Knowing what you know. Would justice be better served if you gave a no vote for either presidential candidate ?
Ms. Mohr. I agree with Vince, split your ticket.
I see it like this; If you do not vote for the person you like you are, in effect, voting for the person you do not like.
I hope it all comes true.The anarchists are destroying the city.
After John McCain died and I read of his request not to have the president at his funeral I was was dismayed. I always respected him profoundly for his unimaginable sacrifice as a POW. Although there was talk that he caused a terrible accident at sea which, as far as I know has never been validated, it was still hard not to like him.
I voted for him and was disappointed when Obama won. Maybe he was a RINO, maybe too naive of the MSM, I don’t know or care. But this man of faith’s rejection of Trump’s attendance at his funeral, knowing he was dying, is something that I, a man of conviction and faith, would never want to take to the grave. What do they say, ‘Bury it before it buries you?’
I have said before, here, that personally, grudges have no place at this time. I hate grudges.
That’s how I see this election. The alternative is unacceptable esp., to future generations. But that’s just me.
I have Italian Alzheimers: I’ve forgotten everything but my grudges.
You are both idiots one can think the other thinks he is smarter then the one that can think
This all with the help of you two
South Philly will haunt you
Awaiting a translation of the above…
Philly Speak, I think, Vince. LoL.
I can’t wait to vote against Mayor Kenny. I am a life long Democrat and city resident. I am scared that his poor leadership decisions has destroyed center city and the entire city. We will know with the flight of businesses and residents from center city and beyond during the remainder of his term. By voting for Trump maybe the Democratic leadership in our city will receive a message. I hope so.
You missed your chance to not vote for him, unless you believe he will run for governor. I do not believe that
Comments are closed.