Don’t bet on a sure thing in sports

“Don’t pinch yourself. You’re not dreaming.

“This Phillies team is that good. They lead an overmatched Diamondbacks team, 2-0, and they’re two wins away from a second straight pennant. They match up well against both the Rangers and  Astros. Dream big.”

— Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes, 10/19/23

Your dream, his nightmare.

Hayes is a former Daily News colleague, a good guy who threw the best New Year’s office parties for the years he lived in Old City.

Normally, he is a nightmare for any player, manager, or owner who rubs his fur the wrong way. 

He’s a strong writer, kind of a social justice warrior, with strong opinions that are often wrong. Sometimes he jumps the rails and yields to irrational enthusiasm. It’s like he’s possessed.

A few weeks before basically guaranteeing a World Series win, he said the Eagles would win their first nine games.

I emailed him to to ask what odds he would lay, as I had $100 to bet.

He did not reply. Maybe he was too busy — I’m sure he gets hundreds of messages — or maybe he was pissed at me for having the gall to challenge the opinion of the “expert.”

Of course, I want the Eagles to win, but it is damn hard to win nine straight in the NFL. I would have made that $100 bet.

And it would not have been the first time I bet against the Eagles.

In 2018, I predicted the Eagles would lose the Super Bowl, [see photo at top] and that I would eat that column if I was wrong. This blog post explains what happened.  

I had several things in my mind.

First, the long and inglorious history of Philadelphia sports teams breaking our freaking hearts. Like what happened Tuesday night at the Bank.

Second, I knew the prediction would infuriate masses of fans and the column would be talked about, and maybe even lead to a mob with pitchforks and torches outside my office.

Third, it was a reverse jinx. Of course, I wanted the Eagles to win, but everyone else was saying they would win, and if I joined in, the football gods would punish me if I predicted a win.

So they did win, and I ate that column, at a news conference suggested by Terry Egger, the then publisher of the Philadelphia Inquirer, who actually liked me. Which put him in a minority at the Inquirer. Not complaining, just saying. 

The point is this: Any professional sports writer who guarantees anything is like a pig on ice.

Sports is too dynamic, too quirky, too filled with snares, to be cocksure about anything.

And Philadelphia teams are built to break your heart.