Don’t applaud PA for Biden’s victory

November 21, 2020 31 Comments

It was nice, hearing my friends across the country (Democratic friends that is) thank me because my city, and my state, “delivered the election for Joe Biden.”

That’s like thanking me for saying, “I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat!” That was Will Rogers, not me, and the truth is, Pennsylvania provided a mere 20 of Biden’s 306 electoral votes, and was not crucial. And while Philly helped, the vote totals contained a dose of reality.

The Red, the Blue and the Flipped (Map: The Guardian)

First, the Quaker State: On Election Night it was quaking, having given the lead to Donald J. Trump as the sun came up. That was expected, I tell my Trumpster friends. And so was what happened next: Biden charged from behind, which was predicted by those knowledgeable about Pennsylvania and Philadelphia elections.

To understand Pennsylvania, let me illustrate with a state even more blue and politically predictable — Delaware, home of the president-elect.

In the First State, processing and counting of ballots that were mailed in began on the Friday before Election Day. That means ballots probably were counted before the polls closed, when the in-person votes were counted.

Next, the largest city in Delaware, Wilmington, has 70,635 people. That would only fill the Eagles football stadium. 

So Delaware’s 3 electoral votes were quickly awarded to Biden Tuesday night. 

In Pennsylvania, ballot counting could not begin before the close of polls on Election Day, and 350,000 mail ballots were received just in Philadelphia.

Get the picture? A tsunami of ballots received, and counting could not begin until after the polls closed. The courts said Pennsylvania had to count all ballots postmarked by Election Day until Friday, so it was going to be days later than many states.

So Pennsylvania was in a position to deliver the winning margin only because it lagged so far behind the majority of other states. Had the Keystone State been able to report by Tuesday night, some Western state, where the polls close later than in the East, would have provided Biden’s winning margin. 

So save your applause for slothful Pennsylvania.

The other reality is that smaller cities, such as Wilmington, can count and report much more quickly than Philadelphia, with 1.5 million people.

The conservative, yonder areas of Pennsylvania reported earlier, giving Trump the expected lead.

As Philadelphia counted and reported, Biden’s total went up, erasing Trump’s lead. 

Early returns from Philly looked like a turnout about equal to Hillary Clinton’s, but final results showed Biden got 604,175, up 3.4% over the 584,025 rung up by Clinton.

But — Trump also received more votes this year, 132,870, up a staggering 22% over his 2016 total of 108,748 in the city.

Biden beat Trump by less than 5-1, while Democratic registration in Philadelphia is about 7-1 over Republicans.

That means Trump overperformed.

How did that happen? 

It happened, nationally, because Trump got about one-third of the Latino vote, and 18% of the Black male vote. This is remarkable for a man widely condemned as racist. These minorities were seeing him in a different light.

Neither of those numbers is close to a majority, but it should send a message to Democrats who were dancing in the streets when Trump was vanquished.

Yes, Biden got the highest-ever number of votes cast for president with 79.7 million.

Trump got the second-highest number of votes with 73.7 million. 

While the U.S. Senate is yet to be decided, with Republicans down 1 seat, they are up at least 8 in the House, and in elections across the nation, Republicans generally gained in state elections, even as the top guy took it on the chin.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans won auditor general and treasurer, while Democrat Josh Shapiro was reelected as attorney general.

You can summarize by saying that Biden had no coattails, or that in a binary election the “loathe” factor worked against Trump, or that Biden’s moderate message was more palatable to most voters than the stereotype of Democratic politicians as radicals who want socialism and to defund the police.

That may not be an accurate stereotype, but it is how Democrats have allowed themselves to be defined.

This has got to be worrisome as the party which controls the White House usually loses seats in congress in midterm elections, such as 2022. 

That is what generally happens. What will happen if Trump either throws himself into it, or sits it out, is an unknown. He is the ultimate wild card.

31 thoughts on “Don’t applaud PA for Biden’s victory”

  1. HAPPY SATURDAY !!!
    Stu,
    Again, you speak the truth. People liked Trump’s message, not Trump ! We’ll see what’s in store for the democrats and our nation !
    I live in a fantasy world. I would like to see this country mend itself. I would like to see Trump’s message carried on, in as much as the world and the democrats will allow.
    I would really like to see the swamp do a reality check and start thinking about the people of this great nation.
    Short of all that.
    HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL !
    Tony

  2. Two things I accept; (1) Biden won (the presidency, anyway; the Dems got hammered in the House and failed to take the Senate, as they had wet dreams over); and (2), the PROCESS used to elect Biden was shameful. Here we are a fifth of the way into the 21st century, and we still can’t hold an election that isn’t fraught with doubt, questions, and the ludicrousness of paper ballots(!). Is our nation so short on technical ability that its cannot come up with an electronic means of voting that will instantly show each state’s winner following the closing of the polls? The fact that DT is still whining about losing is shameful, but he has convinced himself and his rabid followers that he was screwed out victory by the PROCESS, a PROCESS questionable enough to cause the national angst currently infecting the body politic. We are focused on the wrong thing (DT), when we should be focused on what makes DT do what he is doing: the PROCESS. The nation will survive. But weakened in its belief that the system isn’t rigged. The recent election was the Black Sox scandal of 1919 ratcheted up to a presidential election.

      1. Annette,
        Thanks for both
        I watched Thursday afternoon live the presentation by Rudy & Company on FNC. However, it was not on CNN or MSNBC.
        You would think the American media would have just one inkling of journalistic curiosity.
        They’re easy lazy or complicit.
        🤞🙏

      2. Do you get your social security payments by mailed check or electronically? Think about it….

  3. I differ on the interpretation of the process of mail in ballots. It is a loss of an intelligent opportunity of voters during the last two weeks to avail themselves of the best and final information of both sides to make an intelligent decision. As in this election there were many of what we call silent majority who waited until the last minutes to vote. I feel that number would increase substantially if the early main in voters had an opportunity to partake of all the usable information presented by the candidates in the last two weeks which could include facts on issues not known when the mail in votes were cast. To me voting is a right of every citizen but also there has to be some obligation to vote in person for those with that ability and not just a lazy vote from those who could really make a difference in future elections.

    1. Once a ballot is mailed, one’s ability to change one’s mind is lost. The wonderful thing about electronic voting on election day is one may wait until the very last moment to make a decision.

  4. Another explanation for the “overperformance” of DT in Philadelphia is that the 7-1 registration advantage isn’t all that it appears to be. I know a number of Republicans who register as Dems because in local elections, it’s the primaries that count. Since the Republicans rarely if ever have contested primaries in local elections, anyone who isn’t a Dem is effectively disenfranchised. You might even call it a form of “voter suppression” since it limits effective participation to those who choose to register as members of the majority party leaving minority parties and independents without a voice.

      1. Stu,
        If you voted on a machine, then there is “supposed” to be a record of the vote. If you did mai in, there definitely is a record of your vote. To prove the accuracy of the actual vote, you would have to cross check it with the registration. Not gonna happen.
        To give credence to Andrew, is correct. Some registered Dems did jump parties for Trump. Also true. Some reps made the switch. How many ?
        Keep in mind that this election was unusual in more ways than one. The huge voting number changes all previous voter registration lists. Then you have the independents.
        Tony

  5. folks,
    So far, four people have replied to Stu’s blog. Four different explanations on the voting process that just took place. Mail in ballots is nothing new. They work when they are properly monitored in a strict set of rules and procedures. There in lies the problem ! The swamp new exactly what would happen if we went to mail ins. They, congress, have the duty to present a law that should be full proof. Sure, every one has an opinion and if you really want to see how far your money will take you, try a legal challenge .
    Our Constitution clearly explains the voting process. Sorry to say, when it was written, those people didn’t realize how corrupt the world would turn. By giving each state the power to regulate their voting process, coupled with the lack of integrity that abounds, we find ourselves in this mess ! This issue should have been addressed ten years ago ! Never mind corrupt elections. Just getting through the maze of voter fraud, poor registration records and record keeping and the always popular, “dead people voting”!
    I don’t think mail in voting is going away. Quite the opposite. It’s here to stay. Whether or not congress cares enough to clean up the laws is another matter.
    Tony

  6. I’m so encouraged by the12% of black men, 18% of all blacks
    (I believe accurate) who voted for President Trump (And the many young blacks actively invoved). Latino/Hispanic turnout was high, too. This is a positive indicator of our future in the new Republican Party of Trump. He’s proven to all minorities as well as all Americans he cares. Just look at the low unemployment, for one. The list is out there and has benefited everyone and will continue to do so, despite Covid.

    I prematurely threw in the towel once. I won’t do that again. I will not let anyone, especially the media distract me from the challenge to this yet unverified election. I’m willing to wait and accept the outcome (unlike so many in 2016). “It ain’t over till it’s over”

      1. It astonishes me to think that Blacks continue to vote for their overseers on the plantation.

        1. Vince, Stu,
          You and everyone else already know the answers. This country has not done much for the blacks and other minorities. Especially, the American Indian – AKA , Native American ! Actually, that’s wrong. This country has held the minorities down !
          This is not a racist rant. This is fact. The blacks were given their freedom – reluctantly and the Indian was basically confined to a ghetto. We call them reservations .
          Ever since the democrats, with the help of the republicans, have found a way to make money off of the backs of minorities. Until recently, the opportunities have been few and far between. The blacks were not encouraged to become a part of the system. The military was loaded with minorities. They were not welcomed as civilians, so they sought a better life in the service. And they made it a career. Out here, the Indian is not given many opportunities, whether by design or by coincidence. Basically, “you can keep your heritage or join us”. said Uncle Sam.
          Again, the government held down the blacks by creating the welfare system. That could be called the advent to socialism. You are all equal – at the bottom ! Why go to work if you are handed everything that you need. Never mind dignity. With no quality education, the black person is regulated to low income work. Why work for minimum, when you make more on the waffle ?
          The problem has been staring us in the face for eighty years ! The solution is also there. It will take decades to bring the black population up to a livable level that has the merits that the whites have. This is fact . It’s also racism. Maybe that’s why politicians are counting the percentage of the voting minority.
          Tony

          1. Tony: We whites (the privileged majority) have done everything possible for Blacks — every conceivable program imaginable, plus affirmative action to assure fairness in education, hiring, etc. Now it is time for Blacks to stop denigrating Blacks for not being ‘Black enough.’ Blacks can love a Kamala Harris or Barack Obama, but loathe a Clarence Thomas; Blacks can laud a fraud like Al Sharpton, but cast aspersions on a Condoleezza Rice. Too many Blacks hate the thought of Blacks leaving the Democrat womb and striking out on their own…doing their own thinking, practicing their own politics. That’s why the Democrats want to keep Blacks on the reservation: so they can count on their votes. Some day a true Black leader will rise — a leader for ALL blacks, not just the ‘right kind’ of Blacks. Not a Jesse Jackson or an Al Sharpton or any other Judas Goat who lead Blacks to the block. But a leader for ALL blacks, and then — when Blacks realize their true power — American will at long last have achieved equality. I had hoped it will have happened in my lifetime, but every election where Blacks march to the polls and re-elect their cynical taskmasters, I become less sanguine.

        2. “I am repulsed by the people who have worked tirelessly for more than 400 years to convince black people that our skin color is our most prized asset and defining characteristic. This conceit originally led to our physical enslavement. It has now led to our mental enslavement.”

          Jason Whitlock

           

  10. how did Biden get more votes than Obama with out campaigning. It is weird our software for elections is owned by Soros

    1. By “mistake.” He most certainly didn’t earn them. We are now the United States of America in name only.

  11. a reply to Vince;
    I agree with most of what you say, my friend. In the late ’60s, things were forced to change. Court orders will do that. Unfortunately, we “n’t do all that we should”, because the work was leaving the country. Skills were being neglected because there was no need for them. That left technology. Blacks didn’t have the bare bones minimal education to build on, therefore, they missed out on the computer industry. Plus, ya gotta love Washington D.C., the work was shipped overseas. Things just moped along because there was no drive. No ambition. No place to go. If it wasn’t for the union construction, the blacks never would have gained a foothold on the income ladder.
    Then, along came Donald Trump. He saw the waste in this country. He saw that we became an exporter of skills with nothing in return. The man made inroads to securing “equal rights” and “equal pay” for all. Now, there was a need for skilled labor. Now, industry was willing to teach the needed skills, rather than import foreign labor. Uneducated people say that we were becoming “isolationists”. I say, look at the definition applied to trade.
    No Vince. We didn’t do “all that we could”. We were not permitted to do so, by the elitists in the swamp !
    Tony

  12. Vince and Tony,

    https://t.co/2HcBwgHONh?amp=1

    WHITLOCK: BLACK PRIDE RELIGION ORDAINED BY WHITE LIBERALS TAKING BLACK PEOPLE AND AMERICA STRAIGHT TO HELL
    by JASON WHITLOCK

    The above link will take you to the heading above. You may have to scroll up a bit to get to it.
    If you haven’t read it’s worth the 5 minutes or so.
    Tom

    1. The smartphone age has turned us inward, and Covid has exacerbated the loneliness. As a possible solution I suggest…”In times of stress or great duress, think more of others and of thy self less.”

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