Democrats and Biden in a deep ditch

Immediately after the disastrous debate, Joe Biden’s polling numbers declined a bit, but not that much.

Whew, I thought. How did he dodge that bullet?

Two weeks later, the respected Cook Political Report showed that Donald J. Trump is leading Biden by 2.5% in an average of national polls.

Why did Biden sink a few days later? I have a theory that I floated two weeks ago, talking about who decides who won the debate. The decision is made by 1) the journalistic talking heads, 2) the real people who watched the debate, and 3) the people who didn’t watch the debate but get their opinion from social media, and on social media it was Bidenegative. Those in 3) are the majority, and are heavily influenced by what others are saying. What Rush Limbaugh used to call low information voters.

Worse, behind its paywall, Cook finds three tossup states —  Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — are now leaning Republican. Biden narrowly won all three in 2020.

Even worse, Minnesota and New Hampshire were downgraded from “likely” Democratic to “leaning” Democratic.

Did I hear one poll that said New York state wss moving toward Trump, or was I having a seizure?

Biden leads in Wisconsin, but trails in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

If those figures hold, Biden is sunk.

He’s also sunk if he flunks his (scheduled for) 5:30 Thursday news conference on NATO, which will be NOTTO, meaning not NATO, but “How’s your braino?” (And I will bet it starts late.)

This is Biden’s lifeline. If he flubbs it, the rats will be using parachutes to jump off the ship. Some already have and did you notice Nancy Pelosi’s squeeze play — after endorsing him, on Wednesday she said it is up to the President to make a decision whether to stay in?

Biden already made the decision to stay in, but Nancy pretended that didn’t happen. 

Why?

To provide him with a graceful off ramp. No one is better suited than he to say he forgot what he said before. 

The “best” thing for Democrats would be for Biden to crash and burn tonight.

If he falls on his face, throwing him overboard would be easy, and Kamala Harris is standing by. Yes, she is the logical replacement and beat Trump with independents in a recent CNN poll.

The “worst” thing for Democrats tonight would be a passing grade for Biden, a C, but not an A.

They would be left with a suspect candidate, at best.

It would diminish Democratic turnout, and that could rip though the House and Senate.

The last thing I want to see is the White House and Congress controlled by the same party. It makes it too easy for opportunistic pols to drive their pet issues into legislation. 

Tragedy is breathing down the Democrats’ necks.