David Oh plots a course to victory

There is a path to victory, Republican mayoral candidate David Oh was explaining to about 100 supporters at a fund-raiser Tuesday night in the stately Lincolncentric Union League on Broad Street.

David Oh (left) joined by supporters Marina Kats, Tom Caramanico, Matt Wolfe

The road will be as long and tortured — my words, not his — as the Ledo Road supplying China through India during World War II. (A little-known engineering feat of WWII, the 1,000-mile road, through thick, disease-plagued jungle, was built by 15,000 U.S. soldiers, the majority of whom were African-American, at a cost of 1,100 lives.)

Oh’s path will not be that bad.

Winning is a factor of numerology, he explained to his supporters.

Generally speaking, he said, about 300,000 Philadelphians vote for mayor (out of 1,025,354 registered voters — 775,664 Democratic; 114,673 Republican; 135,017 other).

Oh is pinning part of his hopes on 50,000 Democrats he said are not for Cherelle Parker, the Democratic nominee. He already has a “Democrats for Oh” group working for him and is counting on making a run at the 135,017 people registered as independents. 

Also in his game plan are those people wanting change, one of his two primary attack points. The other talking point being his pledge to go after violent crime, partly by hiring 1,300 new police officers, giving them the best training and the full support of the mayor.

As a veteran himself, he is counting on support from those who have worn the uniform, and also from a variety of ethnic groups he has cultivated during his three terms on City Council. He is the first Korean-American to be nominated for Philadelphia mayor.

He also has to activate what he calls the Tier 2 Republicans, those who vote for president, governor and senator, but not for mayor. (Not to mention the Tier 3 — those who don’t vote.)

The numbers say that even if every registered Republican voted for him, that would be 114,673, and that would not be enough. Jim Kenney won his second term with 234,749 votes, and his first term, in 2015, with 203,730 votes.

It will not be easy, and hard work and name recognition alone won’t do it. Oh told the Union League crowd he needs money, and a lot of it.

Recent GOP mayoral candidates have been seriously underfunded — largely because they were seen as unwinnable — but that may be changing this year, as reported by the Inquirer’s Chris Brennan. 

Still, while the 7-1 registration edge is formidable, it is not as steep as it may seem. In 2019, with almost no funds and not much of a campaign, Billy Ciancaglini won almost 20% of the vote, overcoming the 7-1 odds. Much of his support came from voters fed up with Jim Kenney. Oh is hoping some of that “enough already” will attach to Democrat Parker.

You have to go back to 2003 to find a Republican who broke 40%, and that was Sam Katz running against the frosty John Street.

Is it wishful thinking on Oh’s part? What are his chances, I asked Rob Gleason, former state chair of the GOP.

“50/50,” he said.

I gave him a quizzical look.

“There are two names on the ballot, each has an equal shot,” he said, baiting me.

“But —” I started to say, ready to bring up past results of Philly elections.

“Equal until they start counting the votes,” said Gleason with a smile, springing the trap. But he does think Oh can contend, and came in from Johnstown to offer his support. He called Parker “the invisible candidate” who planned to hide, as Joe Biden did in 2020. If she does, that will help Oh.

Although Oh never openly admitted it, he was hoping Helen Gym would get the nomination, because she was anathema to moderate Democrats. Their disdain for her was proven by her third place finish, behind Parker and Rebecca Rhynhart.

Here’s a little secret: There is a “lost” Stu Bykofsky column. 

I wrote it the night before the mayoral primary, expecting and fearing a catastrophic Gym victory.

I will publish that tomorrow, but only on my blog, Stubykofsky.com