Before the pandemic that turned America upside down, the bag of squirrels that was the Democratic presidential campaign presented a choice between “moderates” and “progressives.” (I’m using quotes because who knows what those terms actually mean.)
As I look back at what happened, there were several waves. I am speaking here in broad strokes and I won’t mention all of the candidates because there were two dozen of them, larger than the cast of “A Chorus Line.”
The first debate took place on two consecutive nights and it looked like a visit to Madame Toussaud’s House of Wax. The Democratic political narrative was Left versus Center, which way do we go?
The Left says had Hillary Clinton not cheated last time, Bernie Sanders would have beat Donald J. Trump. The Center says Clinton did beat Trump — in the popular vote, meaning more Americans liked her policies, which were moderate.
The 2020 question: Do we turn Left, or hug the Center? Joe Biden’s assumed victory was historic — no candidate before had lost the first three primaries and returned to win. The answer seemed to be Center. But is that what will happen?
Early on in the race, the energy of the party was captured by those farthest left, meaning Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Most “moderate” or “centrist” candidates — such as Steve Bullock, Michael Bennet, John Hickenlooper, and Tim Ryan — were quickly weeded out.
Interestingly, the “oddball” candidates had a longer shelf life, such as Marianne Williamson, Tulsi Gabbard, Beto O’Rourke, and Andrew Yang, who became a national celebrity.
The next wave eliminated most of the “traditional progressives,” such as Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, Julian Castro, Joe Sestak, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Bill de Blasio.
Moving quickly to the finish line, we have the “Final Five” (using NCAA terminology): Biden, Sanders, Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Pete Buttigieg. Other hangers-on Gabbard and Michael Bloomberg had no traction.
The Final Five were three moderates and two progressives, finally shaking down to progressive Sanders versus moderate Biden.
South Carolina turned Biden into Lazarus, raising him from the dead. He then became a Roman candle, kicking Sanders in the pants in most of the following primaries.
It was Progressive versus Moderate, and the majority of Democratic primary voters said, “moderate,” loud and clear.
Then, amazingly, having won as a moderate, Biden suddenly skidded leftward to seduce Bernie Bros to his banner. Why would Biden adopt policies he had just defeated?
To me, that spelled doom for his campaign. The rest of America is not as Left as most Democrats and most Democrats said no to Sanders.
Then came coronavirus. Thousands of Americans fell dead, and millions lost their jobs, wrecking the economy, which had been Trump’s re-election ticket.
Poof. Gone.
Fair or not, Trump is catching most of the blame.
While we are still six months away from the election, recent polls are bad for Trump. He’s almost 10 points behind in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida, all of which he won in 2016 and which he needs to win this year. Those four states voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
Before November, we are likely to have more than 100,000 dead Americans, and an economy that is still in the ditch. Independents are feeling buyer’s remorse. All this is deadly for Trump.
Now, my pivot.
While I felt moderation was the road to success, I now believe Biden is free to move even farther to the left. He can capture the Bernie Bros and make inroads into the 45% of the electorate who did not vote four years ago. Uncle Joe can be a transformative president, Mount Rushmore-worthy.
Yes to free higher education, Medicare for all, forgiving all debts, a guaranteed minimum income, parental child-birth leaves, rent control, reparations for African-Americans, Open Borders. Let’s give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez an orgasm.
I don’t support any of the above, so I won’t be voting for Biden, who has already moved too far left for me. (I also won’t be voting for the needy, low-brow, egomaniacal incumbent.)
If it is true that Donald Trump is badly wounded, as I believe he is, Biden is free to shrug off moderation, go crazy left and mold a new Democratic Party that socialists George Bernard Shaw and Eugene Victor Debs would love.
You know the saying — Go big or go home.
six months is a long time , the country should bd back to work by then , and the economy will be pent up and take off . Going left is not going to help Joe. All small business just got taste of what it would be like depending on govt for your business . We just had almost 60 days of socialism , not as great as they have tried to build it up to be . Americans just saw what it would be like for govt to be dictated their daily lives . Trump will crush Biden, if he survives to the convention, Bernie is holding on to his delegates just in case . It could get interesting.
Did any businesses send back the check to protest socialism? They may LIKE free stuff!
I don’t blame Trump for the Wuhan virus, which led the economy to crash. Americans who have been paying attention, as I have, know that the pandemic affected all economies, in all countries.
We also know our governors are to blame for the economies of our states, if they keep them locked down longer than necessary. Trump didn’t shut the states down, their governors did.
Trump 2020, come hell or high water. And I was Never Trump until this past December, too.
We will see who Americans blame.
If Biden really wanted to win he would select Candace Owens as VP and outflank President Trump from the right. Snowball’s chance in Hades but a true fairy tale.
Do you have these episodes regularly? 🙂 Anyway, she’s too young. (Michelle Obama more likely than Candace.)
there is a movement within, to push Michele Obama. Watch out for Mark Cuban
I STRONGLY doubt Mrs. Obama will play second fiddle to ANYONE.
C’mon Stu, read between the lines. Biden has said, quite a few times, that the V.P. has to be ready to succeed him.
Problem with that thought is that succession may come sooner, rather than later.
P.S.
perfect ! she aint qualified for ………..
Trump is the worst president in history and is mentally unfit for the job.
He wants to be an authoritarian dictator. He is a corrupt, immoral bastard and I hope he is prosecuted when he leaves office. Only and idiot would vote for the scumbag.
He doesn’t have your vote. Got it.
Ray, I understand and agree with what you said and how you feel. We need to defeat tRUMP come the election. I truly believe it will happen.
HAPPY THURSDAY !!!
Pallie,
Just got done with the critters. I see that the bloggers were waiting for you, ready to pounce. My turn.
People actually make a career in politics – at all levels. I never understood why that is. It’s not because you have values and you want to help. It’s about the bucks ( BENJAMINS, BABY ! ) There are no statesmen out there.
The dimocratic party is a shambles. They somewhat mirror our country, in that the kids and freeloaders want socialism. Others want handouts. Will Biden get the nomination ? Crazier things ( I think ) have happened. I am not a political student. I don’t know who George Soros wants in the White House, but we will find out soon.
I’m not a gambler, either. A professional gambler, at his game, knows the odds of winning at every turn, roll, flip, etc. Politics – good luck picking your Presidential and Vice Presidential at the convention.
Tony
Tony – it’s a good thing I read these response first this time, instead of “shooting from the hip” as it were. I was about to mention the “Soros Factor,” but you beat me to it. Of course, he still has to go up against the Koch brother’s money, but the Soros Factor scares me more. It has bothered me for some time now that we can get the best President that money can buy – or rather the “perceived” best anyway.
Vince,
Aside from you being right – as usual, (sic) bare in mind that one of the latest conspiracy theories, is that the virus is a plant ! It didn’t escape. It was planted ( released ) here. Reason: to make Trump look bad, and in so doing, he would lose the election. Then your thoughts would unfortunately come to ( sic ) bare !
Tony
Tony
Google “Doctors in Black”
Tom,
( BIG SIC )
you must be mistaken. she’s a liar and it’s all tRUMP’s fault !
not to change the subject, but, where did all of the chemicals ( gases) that were found in the middle east come from ? hint (USA)
Tony
‘Doctor’s in Black’ has been removed from utube.
Something smells Fishy!
So this is a good question, Stu, that your article is prompting for me. We are six months out and the polls are what they are. I’m wondering though, historically, how well do six-month-polls-out predict the final election result? Has anyone actually looked at this for the past many presidential elections? I’ve seen polls change very fast.
Thanks for your posts. They make me think!
You are welcome. I noted we are 6 months out and a lot can happen. This truly is a novel situation, pun intended.
I believe at six months out Hillary was crowned the next presidentress. Sic transit gloria mundi.
Bob,
First, “They make me think” is exactly what I said maybe last Fall to Stu. If you’re new here forgive me, (I sometimes forget names) you’ve made a wise choice! Stu is always fair. So will other commenters ( great contributors, esp Tony and Vince) make you think.
Second, Last presidential election, the night of, “polls” Hillary up 3.1 points with 80% chance of victory?
Dont know about previous ones. Yes, a lot can happen in 6 mos. and I’m betting a lot will.
Tom
Stu,
I am truly disappointed that state you “won’t be voting for Biden”, so early in the game. Sad, but true, that no vote is a vote for Trump. He fooled us before and could do it again. Especially since he “cheats”. Why don’t you wait until Biden picks a running mate and has a platform in place before making a decision?
I seriously doubt that the aftermath of this pandemic will be behind us before November, 2020. Joe Biden was VP during the Great Recession, and helped guide us through that disaster. (Something the Trumpsters have conveniently forgotten.) He has the skills and the experience to lead us through this crisis.
I am not voting for Trump either. I was for Biden until he turned crazy Bernie left. I believe his policies are poison for America. If a majority of Americans feel that way, blame Biden, not me.
To all from the left
HAPPY THURSDAY !!!
It was possible, I would really like to physically sit down with you and, as adults, have a conversation about Trump vs anybody. I am not a politician, although I have always been involved in politics. ( as we speak, I am the committee manager for my buddy running for office )
I support President Trump, with eyes wide open, because I know what we had in past years and what Mr. Trump represents now and for the future.
Prior to President Trump all of the Presidential candidate, Vice Presidential candidates and those elected were politicians. Be it governor, congressman, whatever. They were politicians. They were soldiers in the party, paying dues, with aspirations of at least keeping their position, if not moving up. Consequently, they were the face and/or voice of the party. That is not the situation with Mr. Trump. He speaks for all of the people. He wants what is best for the United States of America. He is proving that every single day. True. Not everyone agrees with everything the man does. How could you ? I really don’t believe that anyone out there can hold a candle to him.
Tony
You cannot say Trump speaks “for all of the people.” He does not.
Amen to that, Bro!
You have got that correct.
Stu, Randy and H,
You took that sentence literally. President Trump does indeed speak for all of the people. He doesn’t care what your political affiliations are. We are all Americans, and as such, he speaks for ALL of us.
Tony
Sorry, no. He speaks for his Administration. He may speak for America, but not for all Americans.
As usual, Stu, we disagree. I would not want a politician again, speaking for me in any business with any foreign country.
I would not want any politician speaking on my behalf in congress. Sorry to say, that’s called “selling out”, where I come from.( think Casey & Toomey )
How about this. When this pandemic goes away and business picks up, hopefully President Trump will convince big business to come home. Who then does he speak for ? His administration already has a job. Maybe some of your Philly neighbors would like a good paying job with benefits. Maybe you wont have to ask a ridiculous question like,”Did any businesses send back the check to protest socialism? They may LIKE free stuff!”
I’m not asking you to love the man. I’m asking you and everyone else to respect the highest office in this great land, and the person in that office. I don’t know, personally, anyone qualified for any national office. I have to think hard about someone for state office.
Tony
Tony, I do respect the office but I do not respect the person, (tRUMP) who is currently in that office.
To get respect you need to show respect. tRUMP, with his thousands of proven lies, shows he has no respect for anyone. He does not deserve respect.
No president speaks for all the people. Obama did NOT speak for me. Neither did Nixon.
Perhaps I am using “speaks for ” incorrectly. President Trump actions are for all of the American people. e.g. When he meets with world leaders, Trump puts us first above all else. The American people are his priority. All of us.
Somehow, that phrase gets misused by people like me and the dark side. His words get twisted around so that it does appear that he is lying, cheating, etc. That’s far from true. His entire administration is open for inspection. Transparent is the correct word here.
Tony, tRUMP definitely does not speak for me and I would love to tell him that face-to-face.
if I can’t say “dimocrats”, then you can’t say “tRUMP”
Tony, I am spelling his name correctly. You are incorrectly spelling Democrat. There is a difference.
Here’s how I see it (and isn’t Crazy Joe Biden’s declaration that he will name a female running mate sexism at its worst? A female, no matter how much better male talent may be available?): (A) The Left wants the economy to crash, so that (B) Trump will be defeated in November by Crazy Joe and his female running mate, so that (C) the Left will then be able to put into place the socialist form of government it has craved since ‘progressivism’ was born without (D) having to deal with Bernie Sanders dragging the ticket down to defeat. Then (E) will come: rampant inflation, destroying the currency so (F) a new, cashless society can be established.
If I am wrong, I will loudly proclaim how full of **** I was back on May 7th when I made this prognostication. If I am right, what the hell will it matter anyway?
The reality is that the Dem CAN NOT have a 2 white male ticket. You should know that, i’ve been saying it for a year. Diversity rules. Biden just acknowledged reality.
Diversity for the sake of diversity is nonsense taken to an absurd level. But I think what you are saying is Dems insist on having a ‘perfect’ ticket: an LGBTQ black native American would be ideal.
Vince,
You left out female missing a limb.
A little construction humor:
When I would meet a female engineer the first time. Once the ice was broke and I could tease her a bit, I would ask if she intended to go into business on her own. All female civil engineers, fresh out of college, want to be on their own. I would suggest that they take on a partner. “You want a partner. She has to be a Vet, fresh from the war. She has to be black, missing a limb and gay” I’m pretty sure that in the ’90s, that covered all of the bases ! Inevitably, the girl would laugh and say’I got to right that down. That’s good”.
Tony
Polls consistently show that Americans are center-left not center-right. Majority support for Medicare for All, increasing taxes on the wealthy, increasing the minimum wage, etc. Your gut does not trump data, Stu.
Also, Bernie did not argue for a guaranteed minimum income or open borders. This straw-manning undermines your credibility.
Your conclusion is, of course, correct though. Biden is free to and should go left as it would increase his chances to win. Except he won’t because his goal is not to win. It is to win only if he can also obey his corporate donors and maintain the status quo established by Obama.
Matt, the polls may like Bernie’s policies but the VOTERS DIDN’T. He got beaten.
Proving that there are “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.”
They love all the goodies until their taxes go up to pay for them. Then they howl.
Stu,
I do not believe that Biden will ultimately move severely left. Part of his electability is that he is a moderate leaning towards helping people. He believes strongly in maintaining private health insurance with a medicare/affordable care act option.
If you truly do not vote for Biden in the general election, you are helping to elect Trump, again.
That is precisely what occurred in the last Presidential election with people that did not “like” Hillary; they were never going to go to lunch with her so “liking” her should not be an excuse for not voting.
We need a decent, intelligent, experienced person in the White House; desperately.
Susan, he has ALREADY moved left. That is a fact. My opinion is he will stupidly move even further left. That would cost him the election in normal times. Lucky for him, these ain’t.
Where is Harry Truman when you need him?
These times in American politics are both shameful and shameless. It is bad enough that a sitting President was unjustly accused based on a false dossier, then impeached.
Now we have a man who is dealing obviously with serious memory issues being exploited as a legitimate Presidential nominee by the same party who carried out the impeachment.
From that day in June 2015 when a non politician, an outsider, announced his candidacy for President, unbeknownst to him, a nefarious plan was set in motion to do anything and everything to prevent it. To put it mildly, Trump’s been abused and now Biden’s being used both shamefully and shamelessly, to this day.
As the schizophrenic said, “I’m voting for Biden and so am I.”
Joe Biden should select Tulsi Gabbard. It might piss off the left, but most of them world still vote for him. Even Stu Bykofsky might come around.
Stu Bykofsky would not vote for Open Borders Biden if he selected ME to be VP
I wouldn’t vote for him if he chose you either.
Good. We agree.
Pallie,
FORGETABOUTIT ! you don’t qualify. You’re not crooked, two-faced, and all that.
Tony
Interesting comments from both sides of the spectrum.
As voters are we voting for a personality or the ideas the person represents. I cannot remember completely agreeing with anyone, friends included. I am especially suspect of people telling me how I should think. I have no problem choosing a lever marked D, R or I as I have chosen all three in my voting. I will vote for the person that will move this country forward, not backward. I am only interested in the future of the country.
I will vote this election even if it is down to Biden and Trump which seems to be the case. I think given the age of each candidate the VP is extremely important in my voting decision. I will not accept a candidate that chooses their running mate based on a need to satisfy a demographic checkbox.
As far as polls go, I have never been polled in my 51 years as a voter and I not one of my friends has ever been polled, so I believe in polls about the same as I believe in the weatherman, Zillow or pandemic modeling. They are all just guesses based on limited data and manipulation of that data based on human assumptions.
Do not vote based on personality, we should have learned that in grade school student elections.
HAPPY FRIDAY !!!
H,
I am glad to see that you are choosing your words better, thus, we converse.
President Donald J. Trump is the name and the title with the correct spelling. Proper etiquette is to apply the title and name when first writing. Afterwards, the last name is sufficient.
You choose to mock the President with the rather dull common tRUMP . You insist on defaming Mr. Trump, insinuating that he is a liar and cheap, amongst other things. You have, at your disposal, open dialogue, and most importantly, the first amendment, yet you continue to do what others of your ilk do – nothing but bad mouth Trump. Never facts. You certainty don’t know him personally, or you wouldn’t behave as you do. I seriously doubt that you had business transaction with the man, so that only leaves, womanizing. FORGETABOUTIT !
I don’t believe that you respect the office of the President of the United States of America. I doubt that you believe in the constitution.
You pointed out that I mock democrats. Actually I don’t. I also don’t think that there are any democrats alive. They all moved on and made room for what ever that party stands for. It’s not free speech, for sure. It is free everything else that the government can buy. You just have to be willing to give up your rights that were given to you by God through the constitution. That party embraces socialism where as the republican party, today and always, hailed the Bill of Rights, and the laws that followed. The common term, dimocrats was used by many before I took it up. I call Pelosi, Princess Nancy because she is a very wealthy individual, married to money and surrounded by money. Look up the money in California. Let us know who the Governor is related to.
If you can keep it civil, I’ll respond, if not………….
Tony
Tony, I will only say one thing in response to your post. You say I make assumptions about tRUMP without knowing him personally. You then go on to make assumptions about me, not to mention others, without knowing me personally. Do you believe that is alright?
BTW..You are incorrect about some of your assumptions about me.
HAPPY SATURDAY !!!
H,
You still can’t stop the kiddie crap with the tR..
Never mind the guessing games, speak up ! I KNOW that you never broke bread with the contractor, businessman, to name one.We will never meet. There is nothing between us that would warrant that to happen.
I do know that President Trump puts everything right out there, for all to see. As he says, totally transparent. Forget about the dark side, some of them are going to get spanked !
Lastly; I am not assuming anything. I am reacting to words, or lack of.
Tony
Tony, what you want is blind obedience to your boy tRUMP. In your eyes he can do no wrong. In your eyes he has never lied or misled the people. You believe everyone should feel as you feel and there can be no questioning. You sound like the the crap coming out of Germany during World War II.
bogart
we are done. you can’t spell TRUMP. you can’t do anything but run your mouth. you can’t offer any proof. and you obviously don’t know anything about Germany
have a nice life dimocrat
Anthony Clark, Sr
“Never argue with a stupid person. They will drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience.”
One of the many issues you, and your ilk, have Tony is you demand others do as you want them to do and to hell with them if they refuse. You do not like how I spell tRUMP, for one thing, and I will not accept your demand to do it in a way that satisfies you.
This blog is not here for your personal satisfaction. It is here for people to express their opinions (usually) based on what Stu has written. I believe you have serious issues Tony.
I will continue to speak about tRUMP any way I want. If Stu does not want me to I am sure he will tell me. If he does, since this site is his, I will do as he requests.
You were correct Vincent when you said;
“Never argue with a stupid person. They will drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience.”
I will never argue with Tony again. That way he cannot drag me down to his very low level.